Application of Multinomial Regression Model to Identify Parameters Impacting Traffic Barrier Crash Severity

Mahdi Rezapour1, Amirarsalan Mehrara Molan1, *, Khaled Ksaibati1
1 Wyoming Technology Transfer Center, Department of Civil & Architectural Engineering, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA

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© 2019 Rezapour et al.

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: ( This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

* Address correspondence to this author at the Department of Civil & Architectural Engineering University of Wyoming Office: EN 3084 1000 E University Ave, Dept. 3295 Laramie; Tel: (307)766-5550;



Run Off The Road (ROTR) crashes are some of the most severe crashes that could occur on roadways. The main countermeasure that can be taken to address this type of crash is traffic barrier installation. Although ROTR crashes can be mitigated significantly by traffic barriers, still traffic barrier crashes result in considerable amount of severe crashes. Besides, the types of traffic barriers, driver actions and performance play an important role in the severity of these crashes.


This study was conducted by including only traffic barrier crashes in Wyoming. Based on the literature review, there are unique contributory factors in different crash types. Therefore, in addition to focusing on traffic barrier crashes, crashes were divided into two different highway classes: interstate and non-interstate highways.


The result of proportional odds assumption was an indication that multinomial logistic regression model is appropriate for both non-interstate and interstates crashes involved in traffic barriers. The results indicated that road surface conditions, age, driver restraint and negotiating a curve were some of the factors that impact the severity of traffic barrier crashes on non-interstate highways. On the other hand, the results of interstate barrier crashes indicated that besides the types of barriers, driver condition, citation record, speed limit compliance were some of the factors that impacted the interstate traffic barrier crash severity.


The results of this study would provide the policymakers with the directions to take appropriate countermeasures to alleviate the severity of traffic barrier crashes.

Keywords: Barrier crashes, Traffic barrier, Crash severity, Multinomial logistic regression, ROTR, Roadways.