RESEARCH ARTICLE


Estimation of Cross Classified Value of Travel Time Using Binary Logit Model on Egyptian Roads



Heba Mahmoud Bakry1, Yusra M.H. Elgohary2, Aya Farag3, *, Ibrahim M.I. Ramadan1
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shubra, Benha University, Cairo, Egypt
2 Department of Transport Economics, Egyptian National Institute of Transport, Cairo, Egypt
3 High Institute for Engineering & Technology - Obour. K 21 Cairo/Belbeis Rd. Egypt


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Creative Commons License
© 2022 Farag et al.

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

* Address Correspondence to this author at the High Institute for Engineering & Technology - Obour. K 21 Cairo/Belbeis Rd. Egypt; Tel: 00201095375488; E-mail: civieng.ayafarag@gmail.com


Abstract

Objective:

In this study, cross-classified categories of Value of Travel Time (VOT) are estimated using the binary logit model for the users of both public and private vehicles who have diverse income levels and go on different trips. The travelers’ income level has a large impact on their VOT and on their willingness to pay regarding other factors that impact the travelers’ choice of the most suitable means of transport for them.

Methods:

The research uses the combined stated and the revealed preference survey and applies the logistic regression analysis to estimate the categorized VOT on Egyptian roads. The data sets consist of 1123 respondents who were approached to collect information related to the socio-economic factors and the trips’ characteristics. Each respondent was requested to choose an alternative to each of the choice sets’ levels. All data sets were collected in light of the Binary Logit analysis and recorded concerning the socio-economic factors. A total of 33 models were developed to predict the VOT.

Results:

According to the given analysis, VOT for private car owners (32.5 LE/HR about 2.06 $/ HR) is higher than that for public transport users (18.3 LE/HR about 1.16 $/ HR) in Egypt. As for the diverse income level groups, a positive correlation is found between each traveler and his/her income. To clarify, the travelers’ VOT increases when their income levels improve.

Conclusion:

Concerning the purpose of the trip, the VOT reaches its peak for travelers who travel for the sake of work as their VOT is approximately 38.82 LE/HR, about 2.47$/HR compared to the other travelers who have different traveling purposes other than doing business.

Keywords: Cross classification, Value of travel time, Revealed preference survey, Stated preference survey, Logistic regression analysis, Binary logit model.